2015年究竟会成为技术革新年，还是技术进化年?今年，苹果手表将闪亮登场;一些初创公司估值泡沫终将破裂;苹果支付将成为移动支付业进入主流的最后机会;黑客还将大行其道，估计他们又会祸害另一家《财富》500强企业。好消息是，温馨的智能家居有望进入千家万户。

　　Creating a sci-fi future always takes longer than expected, if ithappens at all.

　　创造一个犹如科幻小说的未来，即便能成功，也总是要花费比预期更长的时间。

　　Consider the example of the connected home, in which everyday devices like security cameras,garage doors, and refrigerators are connected to the Internet and controlled from a smartphone.Companies have pushed the idea for several years, but have gained only limited traction.

　　想象一下联网家庭的样子：安全摄像头、车库门和冰箱等日常设备都与因特网连接，并能用智能手机操控。科技公司已经宣扬这一理念好些年了，但该领域的进展却十分有限。

　　The technology industry’s ambitious road map will be on fully display this week at the InternationalConsumer Electronics Show, the annual gadget industry rally in Las Vegas. Executives fromelectronics makers, car manufacturers, and entertainment companies will make splashy salespitches for their latest products and, maybe, some people will eventually buy them.

　　在一年一度的拉斯维加斯CES国际消费电子展上，科技界充分展现了他们对未来雄心勃勃的规划。电子产品制造商、汽车厂商和娱乐公司的高管们都在卖力地宣扬他们的最新产品，或许有一些人最终会购买这些新玩意吧。

　　Some years in tech turn out to be truly revolutionary. In 2007, Apple introduced the iPhone andreshaped the technology industry. Other years are more a game of catch-up, when companiesfocus on the difficult but important job of making entire categories of products live up to theiroriginal promise. (See: 3-D home television.)

　　事实证明，在有些年份，科技界的确发生了真正革命性的变化。比如2007年，苹果公司推出iPhone，重新塑造了整个技术行业。而另一些年份则更像是一场追赶的游戏，各大公司都专注于困难却重要的工作，以期望它们的整个产品线能够践行当初许下的诺言。(想一想3D电视)

　　What kind of year will 2015 be? Here’s what to expect.

　　2015年会是哪一种呢?以下是值得期待的几大趋势。

　　Countdown to Apple Watch

　　苹果手表即将面世

　　Apple's debut of its smartwatch within the next few months is the biggest hope yet to popularizethe Internet-connected time pieces. Manufacturers have long described the mini-computers wornon the wrist—or anywhere else on the body—as the future. But so far the public has beenunconvinced. Apple's Watch, at $349, may be the last chance to redeem the technology. Apple,of course, has had plenty of success taking existing but clunky electronics—i.e. smartphones andtablets —and making them easy to use. Why not smartwatches? The stakes are high for AppleCEO Tim Cook, who until now, has been riding high on a portfolio of product lines developed by hispredecessor, Steve Jobs. Smartwatches will be entirely Cook's baby, for better or for worse.

　　苹果智能手表将在接下来几个月内面世——在联网计时工具尚未普及之前，这款产品无疑最令人期待。制造商们一直在介绍这种戴在手腕或身体其他部位的微型计算机，声称它们就是电子设备业的未来。然而到目前为止，公众并不买账。349美元起售的苹果手表也许是救赎这项技术的最后机会。当然，就改良市面上表现不佳的电子产品，让它们变得更加方便使用而言，苹果已经取得过许多成功——比如智能手机和平板电脑，那么为何不试试智能手表呢?这款产品对苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆•库克具有特殊意义。因为到目前为止，他一直都在倚赖史蒂夫•乔布斯打造的各种产品。无论是好是坏，苹果手表将成为库克亲生的孩子。