华盛顿政府宁愿在财政政策上如此鲁莽，也不愿向美国公众坦白。他们宁愿把这样一种策略的后果归咎于其他国家的贸易行为，也不愿认真地照照镜子在自己身上找原因。

　　承担不了责任，就抹黑中国吧

　　同时，美国政府还下大功夫抹黑中国，以证明自己充满攻击性的贸易政策是正当的。

　　China has been charged with a number of so-called Section 301 violations of the US Trade Act of 1974 and vilified, accordingly, in the arena of US public opinion.

　　中国被指控违反所谓《1974年贸易法》第301条的多项规定，也由此遭到美国公众舆论的严重诋毁。

　　Yet the evidence behind such allegations is flimsy at best and outright misleading at worst.

　　然而，这些指控背后的证据往好了说是站不住脚，往严重了说，完全是误导。

　　Apparently, it is much easier to find comfort in the false narrative than toaccept responsibility for fiscal excesses and saving shortfalls that spawn the macroeconomic imbalances that give rise to multilateral trade deficits.

　　显然，通过抹黑别人寻找慰藉，可比承担起责任，承认美国储蓄不足是导致宏观经济失衡和多边贸易逆差的主要原因，容易多了。

　　单纯解决贸易逆差就有用了吗

　　讽刺之处在于，此类贸易协议即便达成，也只是看重中国承诺购买超过1万亿美元的美国制造的商品，由此缩小两国间的贸易不平衡。

　　This is pure political theater at its worst —underscoring the folly ofa bilateral fix for a multilateral problem.As noted above, the bilateral fix is a recipe for trade diversion that does next to nothing in providing lasting relief for American workers and consumers.

　　这等于是在以双边贸易手段解决多边问题，极其愚蠢，简直是一场政治闹剧。正如上文所述，双边解决方案是对贸易转移有效，但长远来看，对于长期缓解美国工人和消费者的压力却无济于事。

　　最重要的是，单纯解决双边贸易逆差并没有触及到长久威胁两国局势的结构性问题（the fixation on the bilateral trade deficit fails to address the structural issues that threaten lasting tensions between the two nations）。

　　而市场准入就是这些结构性问题中的一个：

　　Market access is at the top of that list — the opportunity of multinational corporations in both nations to invest freely in each other's markets.The US claims that China's joint venture requirements imposed on such investments is a recipe for forced technology transfer.

　　市场准入至关重要，这是指两国跨国公司在彼此市场上自由投资的机会。美国声称，中国企业对合资企业提出的技术转让要求，实质上是对专利创新和知识产权的强制窃取。

　　2018年，美国总统特朗普4月5日要求美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）依据“301调查”，考虑对从中国进口的额外1000亿美元商品加征关税。

　　As highlighted in the March 2018 Section 301 report of the US Trade Representative (USTR), this charge has become the poster child of the US-China dispute and the foundational evidence for Trump’s tariffs. This has occurred despite the fact that the USTR admits (on page 19 of the March 2018 report) that there is no direct evidence to support the allegation that technology transfer is forced by joint ventures that represent voluntary agreements between US and Chinese partners. Once again, the false narrative apparently matters more than fact-based analytics.

　　正如美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）2018年3月的301条款报告所强调的那样，这已经成为美国的典型指控，也是特朗普关税政策的基本证据——尽管USTR承认（在2018年3月19日的报告第19页）并没有直接证据支撑美国和中国合作伙伴之间签署自愿协议的合资企业迫使技术转让的指控。再一次，抹黑显然比基于事实的分析更重要。

　　解决办法还是有的

　　斯蒂芬·罗奇认为，中美还是有许多务实的解决方法来缓和双边关系。如以下三例：

　　❶ Bilateral Investment Treaty.

　　双边投资协定。

　　Market access is best addressed through the formalization of cross-border investment rules and standards that are stipulated in a bilateral investment treaty (BIT).

　　市场准入最好是通过双边投资协定中规定的跨境投资规则和标准的正规化来解决。

　　The United States currently has 42 BITs on the books and China has 145. Under a BIT, foreign ownership caps can be eliminated, thereby rendering joint ventures unnecessary and taking allegations of forced technology transfer off the table.

　　美国累计签订了42个双边投资协定，中国累计签订了145个。在双边投资协定框架内，可以取消外资持股上限，这样讨论合资公司就不再那么重要，有关被迫技术转让的指控也即不成其为问题了。

　　Prior to the 2016 presidential election in the United Sates, the US and China spent 10 years attempting to negotiate a BIT. Stymied by Trump’s tariffs, those negotiations have been suspended.

　　在2016年美国总统大选之前，美国和中国花了10年时间试图谈判。由于受到特朗普关税政策的阻碍，这些谈判已经暂停。

　　Restarting BIT negotiations would be the single best strategy to resolve the thorny issue of forced technology transfer.

　　重启双边投资协定谈判将是解决棘手的技术转让问题的主要策略。

　　❷ Trans Pacific Partnership.

　　跨太平洋伙伴关系。

　　The political decision to abrogate America's commitment to TPP in the first days of the Trump presidency was a mistake. This multilateral agreement provided a high-quality framework linking 12 nations accounting for 40% of world GDP through cross-border trade liberalization, labor standards, intellectual property rules, Internet protocols, and environmental norms.

　　在特朗普总统任期的头几天就废除了美国对TPP承诺，这个政治决定是个错误。这项多边协议提供了一个高质量的框架，通过跨境贸易自由化、劳工标准、知识产权规则、互联网协议和环境规范，将12个占世界GDP40%的国家连接起来。

　　With China on the outside looking in, TPP would have provided a powerful mechanism for Chinese conformity to many of the structural norms that are currently being contested. While a rethinking of America’s TPP strategy may not be politically possible for President Trump, it may well be a realistic option after the 2020 presidential election.TPP将为中国遵守目前备受争议的许多结构性规范提供一个强有力的机制。虽然对特朗普总统来说，重新考虑美国的TPP战略在政治上是不可能的，但在2020年总统大选之后，这很可能是一个现实的选择。

　　❸ Global cyber accord.

　　全球网络协议。

　　Like the trade conflict, this is not a bilateral problem. The US and China should take the lead in forging a global cyber accord, complete with pooled metrics of cyber incursions, attack-reduction targets and a robust dispute-resolution mechanism.

　　与贸易冲突一样，这不是一个双边问题。美国和中国应率先打造一项全球网络协议，包括网络入侵、减少攻击目标和强有力的争端解决机制等综合指标。

　　当前世界迫切需要政治智慧

　　在文章的最后，斯蒂芬·罗奇指出，面对当前局势，现在这个世界比以往任何时候都更加迫切地需要政治智慧。

　　The United States and China are on a collision course. The world’s two largest economies have accounted for fully 44% of world GDP growth since 2008. If they opt for a superficial resolution or fail to come to terms on their trade conflict, the global economy could well falter. Resolution is possible but it won’t be easy in the current climate.

　　如今，美国和中国有发生严重冲突的可能性。自2008年以来，这世界上最大的两个经济体已经占据全球GDP增长的44%。如果他们没能选择正确的解决方案，或者未能就贸易冲突达成协议，那么全球经济很可能就会摇摇欲坠。问题并非不可解决，但在现今的氛围下并不是一件容易的事情。

　　Saving-short America's bipartisan political support of China bashing is especially problematic in threatening to turn a trade war into a protracted and destructive economic cold war. Now, more than ever, a fragile world is in desperate need of political will and wisdom — and a leadership courage that is sorely lacking today.

　　储蓄短缺的美国政坛上下对中国进行大力抨击，这有可能将贸易战变成一场旷日持久、具备破坏性的经济冷战。现在这个世界比以往任何时候都更加迫切地需要政治智慧，以及一种极度缺乏的、领导者应当具备的胆识。

　　斯蒂芬·罗奇

　　Stephen S.Roach

　　耶鲁大学高级研究员，摩根士丹利亚洲区前主席，他被公认为华尔街最具影响力的经济学家之一。他的研究著作被金融报刊和其他传媒广为引用，最新著作是《失衡：美国与中国的相互依存》（Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014)）。