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报告称:2030年中国人口可能出现负增长(双语)
2019-01-07 15:22
来源:人民网
作者:
China’s population is expected to experience continuous negative growth from 2030 after reaching a peak of 1.44 billion in 2029, said a report published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Thursday.
中国社会科学院(CASS)周四发布的一份报告称,中国人口在2029年将达到14.4亿的峰值,预计从2030年开始进入持续的负增长。
The country’s population is expected to shrink to 1.36 billion in 2050, and 1.25 billion in 2065.
该国人口预计将在2050年减少到13.6亿,2065年减少到12.5亿。
The report warned that if the total fertility rate, which means the number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime, remains at 1.6, negative population growth is likely in 2027, with a potential total population of 1.17 billion, which is equivalent to the year 1990.
该报告警告说,如果总生育率(即妇女一生中将生育的子女数目)保持在1.6,人口可能在2027年开始负增长,潜在的总人口为11.7亿,相当于1990年的人口数量。
The World Bank estimated that after 1996, China’s fertility rate was lower than 1.6, rising back up to 1.6 in 2013 and 1.62 in 2016. The report noted that if China could maintain this momentum in growth, China’s fertility rate would return to a relatively safe level.
据世界银行预测,1996年以后,中国的生育率一直低于1.6,直到2013年回升到1.6,2016年达到1.62。这份报告指出,如果这种趋势能够延续,那么中国的生育率就可以回升到一个相对安全的水平。