By most measures the U.S. economy is in excellent health. Yet stocks are sinking, yields on corporate bonds are rising and commodity prices are tumbling—all typical precursors of a slowdown or recession.

　　以大部分标准来衡量，美国经济都非常健康。但美国股市却大幅下挫，公司债券收益率正在上升，大宗商品价格则在下跌，这些都是经济增长放缓或衰退的典型前兆。

　　The dichotomy is rooted in two unusual features of the world today. First, while the U.S. is surfing a wave of fiscal stimulus, growth in the rest of the world is slowing. That’s undercutting prospects for companies that do business abroad. Second, the Federal Reserve is steadily withdrawing the unprecedented monetary stimulus that buoyed the economy and almost every asset class over the last decade.

　　这种悖论根植于当今世界的两个不同寻常的特征。第一，虽然美国经济借助一波财政刺激蓬勃发展，但全球其他地区的经济增长正在放缓。这损害了在海外做生意的企业的前景。第二，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)正在稳步退出前所未有的货币刺激政策，这些政策在过去十年间提振了经济以及几乎每一个资产类别。

　　The question is whether markets, in adjusting to these new realities, will overreact to the point that they endanger the expansion, on track to become the longest ever next summer. The answer for now appears to be no, but the trends are troubling.

　　问题是，市场在适应新现实的过程中是否会有过激反应，以至于危及有望在明年夏天打破历史最长记录的本轮经济扩张。目前而言，答案似乎是否定的，但趋势令人不安。

　　Assessing forward-looking market and economic data, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. put the odds of a recession beginning in the next 12 months at around one in three. A year ago, their models put the probability at 8% to 27%.

　　通过对市场和经济数据的前瞻性评估，摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co., JPM)的经济学家认为美国经济在未来12个月内步入衰退的几率为三分之一。一年前，其模型给出的几率是8%-27%。

　　JPMorgan economist Jesse Edgerton says this partly reflects the stage of the business cycle. Unemployment is low, wage and inflation pressures are building, asset prices and corporate debt are high and the Fed is raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. “On average, expansions haven’t lasted more than a couple of years” under conditions like this, he said.

　　摩根大通经济学家Jesse Edgerton说，这在某种程度上折射出当前商业周期的阶段。失业率低，工资和通胀压力正在累积，资产价格和公司债务高企，美联储正通过加息防止经济过热。他说：“一般而言，在这种条件下，扩张持续不了太久。”

　　Right now, the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders. Economic output rose 3% in the year through the third quarter, the most since 2014. Unemployment has sunk to its lowest since 1969, and the latest indicators—such as consumer confidence and new claims for unemployment insurance—show no signs of trouble. The main reason for these strengths: a tax cut and federal spending boost that juiced business, consumer and government spending.

　　眼下，美国经济正在全速前进。今年前三季度美国经济产出增长3%，为2014年以来最大增幅。失业率跌至1969年以来最低水平，而消费者信心和首次申领失业保险等最新指标未见不利迹象。形成这些强势的主要原因是：减税和联邦支出增加刺激了企业、消费者和政府支出。

　　The picture is quite different outside the U.S. Both the German and Japanese economies shrank in the third quarter, though partly due to one-off factors, and Chinese growth slipped to its lowest in a decade.

　　但美国以外的情况大不相同。第三季度德国和日本经济均出现收缩，尽管部分原因是一次性因素，而中国经济增速则降至十年来最低水平。

　　Weak global demand is weighing on commodities, including oil, which is also grappling with oversupply. That, plus a strong dollar—which reduces the value of sales earned in foreign currencies—and trade frictions add up to a cloud hanging over companies that do business abroad.

　　全球需求疲软令石油等大宗商品承压，石油则面临供应过剩问题，加上造成外币销售收入缩水的美元升值和贸易摩擦，给海外经营的企业前景蒙上阴影。