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气候变化专门委员会报告:将气候变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以下(双语)
2018-10-11 10:07
来源:路透社
作者:
The report is seen as the main scientific guide for government policymakers on how to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement during the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland in December.
该报告被视为政府决策者在今年12月将在波兰举行的卡托维兹气候变化会议上就如何贯彻实施2015年巴黎协定的主要科学指南。
To contain warming at 1.5C, man-made global net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions would need to fall by about 45 percent by 2030 from 2010 levels and reach “net zero” by mid-century. Any additional emissions would require removing CO2 from the air.
为了控制1.5摄氏度的气候变暖,人为的全球净二氧化碳(CO2)排放量需要在2030年之前从2010年的水平下降约45%,并在本世纪中叶达到“净零”。任何额外的排放都需要去除掉二氧化碳。
The report summary said renewable energy would need to supply 70 percent to 85 percent of electricity by 2050 to stay within a 1.5C limit, compared with about 25 percent now.
该报告摘要称,到2050年,可再生能源将需要提供70%至85%的电力,而现在该数字约为25%。
Using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the share of gas-fired power would need to be cut to 8 percent and coal to under 2 percent. There was no mention of oil in this context in the summary.
使用碳捕集与封存(CCS)技术,燃气发电的份额需要降低到8%,煤炭需要降到2%以下。在摘要中没有提到石油能源。
If the average global temperature temporarily exceeded 1.5C, additional carbon removal techniques would be required to return warming to below 1.5C by 2100.
如果全球平均温度暂时超过1.5摄氏度,则需要额外的碳去除技术,以便在2100年之前将温度恢复到1.5摄氏度以下。
But the report said the efficacy of measures, such as planting forests, bioenergy use or capturing and storing CO2, were unproven at a large scale and carried some risks.
但该报告称,诸如种植森林,使用生物能源或捕获和储存二氧化碳等措施的有效性尚未得到大规模证实,而且这些措施存在一些风险。
But the effects of not meeting the 1.5C target would mean huge changes to the world. The lower level would mean the Arctic Ocean would be free of sea ice in summer only once per century not at least once a decade under the higher target. Coral reefs would decline by a still unsustainable 70 percent to 90 percent instead of being virtually wiped out under the higher increase.
达不到1.5摄氏度的目标将意味着世界会发生巨大变化。1.5摄氏度的升温意味着北冰洋在夏季只会出现每个世纪一次没有海冰,而2摄氏度的升温则意味着十年一次没有海冰。珊瑚礁的数量仍将下降70%至90%,这仍然是不可持续,但2摄氏度的升温则会使珊瑚礁完全消失。
“The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it,” said Amjad Abdulla, the IPCC board member and chief negotiator for an alliance of small island states at risk of flooding as sea levels rise.
“报告显示,我们只剩下很小的机会避免对我们赖以生存的生态系统造成无法想象的破坏,”IPCC董事会成员兼海平面上升及洪水泛滥风险小岛国联盟首席谈判代表Amjad Abdulla说。