The world should beware a technology cold war

　　A drastic decoupling would carry risks for both the US and China

　　世界应当心一场科技冷战

　　翻译：靳德斌

　　The latest strike in the trade battle between the US and China has landed, literally, on the desks of Chinese government offices and public bodies. Beijing has ordered the removal of foreign computer equipment and software within three years. Chinese buyers will have to switch to domestic technology vendors. The policy edict is not a surprise: Chinese technology companies, notably Huawei, have been among the chief targets of the trade dispute with the US. The move is a preemptive defense to protect China’s domestic supply base. Washington, driven by security and economic concerns, this year banned US businesses from doing business with Huawei.

　　美中之间贸易战最新招数在中国政府办公室和公共机构的办公桌上着陆了。北京命令三年内去除国外电脑设备和软件。中国买家需要转向国内技术卖家。这个政令不令人吃惊：中国科技公司，尤其是华为，成为与美国贸易争端的主要攻击目标。这个行动是保护中国国内供应群体的先发制人的防御措施。华盛顿基于安全和经济考量今年禁止美国企业与华为开展业务。

　　In reality, both sides have much to lose. China, whatever its advances in technological research, still relies heavily on foreign knowhow and imports. The US, meanwhile, in pursuing a protectionist agenda under President Donald Trump, may end up spurring innovation in China rather than hindering its progress. There is also a wider significance. The decoupling of the technology sectors between the two countries is becoming a reality. The danger is that this decoupling turns into a giant rift – one that splits the internet between dominant US and Chinese spheres.

　　实际上，双方都会失去太多。无论科研如何先进，中国仍然严重依赖外国专有技术和进口。同时，美国在特朗普总统治下寻求贸易保护主义，其结局可能是刺激了中国创新而非阻碍其发展。另外还有一层更广泛的意义。两国科技领域的脱钩正成为现实。危险在于这种脱钩变成一种巨大断裂，一种导致美国和中国主导的互联网领域的分裂。

　　Beijing has been pursuing a “decoupling” agenda for more than a decade. It has long viewed self-sufficiency through the lens of national security. The country blocked the services of Google and Facebook among others ostensibly because public criticism of China’s political system is a breach of national security. Yet, at the same time, the market gap has been filled by domestic groups such as Tencent. Beijing should consider the risks of a more radical shift towards self-reliance: the country is heavily integrated in technology value chains with a large share of global exports and imports. In the case of integrated circuits and optical devices, for example, Chinese imports outstrip domestic production by a factor of five, said a report by McKinsey, the management consultancy.

　　十几年来北京一直在追求“脱钩”目标。她长期用国家安全的眼光看待自给自足问题。这个国家阻断谷歌、脸书等服务表面上是由于对中国政治体系的公开批评破坏了国家安全。然而，与此同时市场空间却由国内企业如腾讯填补了。北京应考虑向自立较激进的转变带来的风险：中国很大程度上融入科技价值链，占全球进出口较大份额。例如集成电路和光学元件，管理咨询机构麦肯锡报告显示，中国进口量超过国内生产量五倍。

　　The new directive appears to have flaws: does an HP’s printer in a government office in itself present a national security threat? Analysts also question how easy it will be to implement; they reckon that up to 20m pieces of hardware would need to be swapped out as a result. Experts also caution that it will be difficult to replace software with domestic alternatives; most developers build products for US-made operating systems such as Microsoft’s Windows and Apple’s macOS.

　　新命令似乎存在缺陷：政府办公室的一台惠普打印机本身构成国家安全威胁吗?分析家们也质疑将来如何容易地执行。他们认为，高达2千万个硬件需要更换。专家们也警告将很难用国内替代品更换软件。大多数研制者都将产品建立在美国生产的操作系统，如微软的视窗和苹果的macOS系统。

　　For the US, too, the stakes are high. The desire to protect national security is understandable, notably given the close relationship between Chinese tech companies and the state. Western governments are right to be careful about allowing Huawei to build their 5G broadband networks. More than strategic interests are at stake. Nevertheless, completely isolating Chinese companies will not help national security. Signs of competing US- and China-led internets are already emerging.

　　对于美国来说，也是利益攸关。尤其考虑到中国科技公司与政府之间的密切关系，美国保护国家安全的愿望是可以理解的。西方国家允许华为建立他们的5G宽带网时持谨慎态度是对的。这不仅仅是战略利益处在成败关头。但是，完全隔离中国公司将无助于国家安全。美国和中国领导的互联网竞争已露端倪。

　　The technology trade is different from others. It is a truly global sector, with highly integrated supply chains. It works best when it can collaborate across borders. A technological rift between the US and China would affect companies across all sectors and all parts of the world. It is in both Washington and Beijing’s interests to avoid a genuine splintering where companies have to choose between American or Chinese regulations. Robert Zoellick, a former World Bank president who has served in past Republican administrations, recently warned of the dangers of pushing Beijing into a separate system with different rules. There are no winners from a technology cold war.

　　科技贸易不同于其他。它实实在在是一个全球行业，供应链高度融合。跨国合作时，这个行业运行最佳。美中之间的科技分裂会影响到整个行业和全世界各个区域的公司。避免真正的分裂以免公司不得不在美国或中国法规之间选择符合华盛顿和北京双方的利益。世界银行前总裁、曾在几届共和党政府任职的罗伯特·佐利克最近警告将北京推到一个不同规则的单独系统的危害。一场科技冷战没有赢家。