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双语:受气候变化冲击最大的国家是哪些?
2018-09-30 10:46
来源:英国独立报
作者:
For example, policymakers often point to the fact that carbon dioxide causes little immediate harm to the economy as justification for rolling back regulations. But the new study shows that the actual impact of climate change could be much more intense than previously thought.
例如,政策制定者经常指出,二氧化碳排放对经济造成的直接损害极小,以此作为取消环保法规的理由。但这项新研究表明,气候变化的实际影响可能比人们此前认为的要严重得多。
The Trump administration has been active in scrapping various environmental regulations, including pulling the US out of the landmark Paris climate agreement. The president did so in large part because of claims about the economy, including suggestions that global warming is a hoax created by China to punish the US.
特朗普政府一直在积极废除各种环保法规,包括让美国退出具有里程碑意义的巴黎气候协定。特朗普之所以这样做,很大程度上是因为某些有关经济事务的说法。
The new study shows that the US economy in fact stands to lose considerably from climate change, despite repeated suggestions from politicians that the opposite is true.
这项新研究表明,美国经济实际上会因为气候变化而蒙受巨大损失,尽管政客们一再声称情况并非如此。
"Our analysis demonstrates that the argument that the primary beneficiaries of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions would be other countries is a total myth," said lead author and University of California San Diego assistant professor Kate Ricke. "We consistently find, through hundreds of uncertainty scenarios, that the US always has one of the highest country-level SCCs.
“我们的分析表明,认为二氧化碳排放量减少的主要受益者将是其他国家的观点完全是杜撰出来的,”研究报告的第一作者、美国加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校助理教授凯特·里克说,“我们通过数百种不确定情境模拟得出的结论都表明,从国家层面看,美国承受的碳排放社会成本一直位居全球前列。”
"It makes a lot of sense because the larger your economy is, the more you have to lose. Still, it’s surprising just how consistently the US is one of the biggest losers, even when compared to other large economies."
里克说:“这相当合理,因为你的经济规模越大,损失就会越大。不过,结果还是让人吃惊:即便与其他大型经济体相比,美国竟然始终是损失最大的国家之一。”
Previous analysis has largely looked at the global cost of carbon emissions. That is more easy to calculate, because carbon dioxide affects the whole world.
此前的研究主要关注碳排放带来的全球成本。这很容易计算,因为碳排放影响整个世界。
But the new study combines results from a series of studies and models to work out how the increase in carbon would affect individual countries. The results should serve as a warning to those countries most affected that they must do more to act together and mitigate climate change, the authors wrote.
但是,新研究结合了一系列研究结果和模型,以搞清碳排放增加如何影响单个国家。新研究的作者们表示,他们的研究结果应当向那些受碳排放影响最大的国家敲响警钟:它们必须为应对气候变化付出更多努力。
Countries in the European Union, for instance, have been among those keenest and most active in addressing climate change, but are relatively unaffected according to the new study. Those that the study found to be most affected by carbon emissions – including India and China alongside the US – have also been less proactive in promoting new regulations to combat them, the authors noted.
例如,在应对气候变化方面,欧盟国家一直是最热心、最积极的国家之一,但根据这项新研究,这些国家其实相对不受影响。报告作者指出,研究发现,反倒是那些受碳排放影响最大的国家——包括印度和中国,以及美国——在推广应对碳排放的新法规方面不够积极。